Economic Cycle & Growth
Swiss export economy under pressure - economic growth cools further
03.12.2025
AI-translated. Some sections may contain inaccuracies.
At a glance
- The great uncertainty on the global markets and protectionist measures in many countries are weighing on the Swiss export economy.
- economiesuisse expects Switzerland's real gross domestic product to grow by a modest 1.0 percent in 2026 after 1.2 percent this year and thus remain below potential growth.
- The labor shortage is weakening and the unemployment rate will rise from an average of 2.8 percent (2025) to 3.0 percent (2026).
Despite the political uncertainties, the global economy appears to be growing unperturbed at around 3% per year, which is also likely to be the case in 2026. Fiscal measures are providing a boost, but are increasing countries' debt burdens and reducing the scope for spending in the future. However, growth in our neighboring countries remains weak. At least Germany will grow slightly again after two years. However, growth in the EU as a whole is significantly better. Countries on the periphery of the EU and in non-euro countries are therefore showing stronger economic momentum than our neighboring countries. The USA is growing robustly despite more expensive imports and slightly rising prices. China, on the other hand, thrives on exports, while domestic demand remains weak. In the world's two largest economies, the state is also providing strong economic stimulus.
Uncertainty weighs on the economy
In the global economy, uncertainty is the new normal. Since the pandemic, the Swiss economy has been confronted with crises such as the war in Ukraine and the US customs policy. Companies are therefore adapting their purchasing strategies and investment decisions, reducing costs and reviewing their innovation strategy. However, these changes often lead to higher costs. One ray of hope is the agreement reached in the customs conflict with the USA, which should at least eliminate Switzerland's competitive disadvantage compared to European countries.
Export sector under pressure - domestic economy stable
The wind remains rough on international markets. The Swiss tech industry, the watch industry, the textile industry, the chemical industry and the export-oriented food industry are expecting foreign sales to fall in 2026. In contrast, the pharmaceutical and medical technology industries are expected to continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace. Exports of services, banking, wholesale and tourism should also increase in 2026. Overall, demand for Swiss products and services abroad will remain stable at a high level next year, albeit with shifts in importance between the export sectors.
The domestic economy is benefiting from various factors. Favorable interest rates and high demand are stimulating residential construction. Even though civil engineering is weakening, construction as a whole is growing. At the same time, it is being held back by lengthy building permit procedures. Both export-oriented and locally focused companies are increasing their investments in equipment. Services for companies such as consulting and banking and insurance services are also on the rise. Private consumption will be supported because real wages will continue to rise next year following a sharp increase in 2025. This will benefit retailers, restaurants and the local food industry. The healthcare industry, education and the transportation sector will also grow. Government consumption is growing steadily.
Cooling on the labor market
The Swiss labor market is easing after years of labor shortages. Companies are finding it easier to find suitable staff again. Structural change and the high level of uncertainty about future economic development mean that many companies are overstaffed. Companies are streamlining their processes through digitalization, particularly in the service sector and in industry, in order to survive in the face of tough international competition. Despite job cuts, many new jobs are being created, meaning that unemployment will only rise slightly from 2.8 to 3.0 percent next year.
Weaker GDP growth of 1.0 percent
Monetary conditions in Switzerland remain good. The SNB's key interest rate should remain at 0 percent in 2026. Inflation is at the lower end of the SNB's target range. As long as the interest rate differential against the euro and the dollar is maintained and inflation rates remain higher than in Switzerland, only a slight appreciation of the Swiss franc is expected. economiesuisse expects the Swiss franc/euro exchange rate to average 0.91 next year.
Gross domestic product growth in Switzerland will be weaker in 2026 at 1.0% (after 1.2% this year). Inflation will remain at a low level with an annual average of 0.4 percent in 2026.
Forecasts of the national accounts
Change compared to previous year (%)
2022
2022
2023
2024
2025P
2026P
Gross domestic product, real
3.5
0.8
1.4
1.2
1.0
Private consumption
4.9
1.4
2.4
1.5
1.4
Public consumption
-0.6
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.3
Construction investments
-6.9
-1.5
-1.4
0.0
1.5
Equipment investments
4.7
3.8
1.2
0.3
3.2
Exports (Total)
5.6
-2.6
4.3
1.4
0.0
Imports (total)
6.2
0.9
4.1
1.5
1.0
Price and labor market forecasts
2022
2022
2023
2024
2025P
2026P
Inflation rate
2.8
2.1
1.1
0.2
0.4
Unemployment rate
2.2
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.0
Exogenous assumptions*
2022
2025
2026
Exchange rate CHF/Euro
0.93
0.91
Exchange rate CHF/$
0.82
0.80
Oil price in $
67
62
Growth rate U.S.
1.8
2.0
Growth rate euro zone
1.1
1.2
Growth rate China
4.5
4.5
Short-term interest rates
0.1
0.0
Yields on Federal government bonds
0.4
0.4
*Input variables for the estimation of economic forecasts
Assumptions of the baseline scenario and economic risks
The baseline scenario assumes that geopolitical tensions will persist but not become more acute. As uncertainty is the new normal, deviations from the base scenario can easily arise. Global economic developments in particular are uncertain. Further escalations in trade conflicts are possible. The outcome of the war in Ukraine or the conflict in the Middle East is also open. There is also a great deal of uncertainty about how share prices will develop on the stock markets. Valuations are high and the debt levels of many players, including governments, are very high. Price slumps would have a major impact on consumption, particularly in the US, on companies' investment decisions and would dampen the international economy and thus Switzerland's export prospects.
In our survey, 28% stated that trade conflicts represent the greatest economic risk from their perspective. Uncertainty was also mentioned as a risk by 16% and geopolitical tensions by 13%. As the figure shows, many companies believe that demand could fall unexpectedly. Almost a fifth of survey participants also see bureaucracy and overregulation as an obstacle to growth. Compared to previous surveys, however, exchange rates, energy and raw material prices, supply chains and labor shortages were cited significantly less as economic risks.
